Vietnam economy will achieve impressive growth

September 25, 2022 | News

Although the global economic context is still uncertain, Vietnam's economy is assessed to grow quite well, and GDP is forecast to reach over 7% growth in 2022.

At the investment seminar with the theme "Cash flow" organized by Manulife Investment Vietnam Fund Management Company Limited this morning (September 24) in Ho Chi Minh City, Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist of the Bank BIDV, a member of the National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, said that the world economy this year was quite unstable with unexpected developments coming from geopolitical factors.

This led to increased inflation worldwide, and major economies like the US suffered a technical recession. Forecasts also show that the global economy may only grow by about 3% this year.

Although the global economic context is still uncertain, Vietnam's economy is assessed to grow quite well, and GDP is forecast to reach over 7% growth in 2022.

This is thanks to the growth drivers from exports, investment, consumption, and promotion of socio-economic recovery and development programs and public investment.

According to Mr. Luc, the fact that the State Bank has just moved to increase the operating and deposit interest rates is the right time and will help control inflation and stabilize the exchange rate. Therefore, this year, inflation is forecasted to be below 4%, while the exchange rate will still be well controlled.

"Vietnam continues to be an attractive destination for foreign investment because our country is politically stable, has good economic recovery, owns many free trade agreements, and participates in the international investment chain. More global supply," - Mr. Luc said.

A recent report by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said that Vietnam is facing complicated developments in the global economy.

However, Vietnam's GDP will grow by 6.5% and 6.7% next year. With such a growth forecast, Vietnam will be the economy with the most robust growth in Southeast Asia in 2022 and 2023.

Commenting on Vietnam's recent interest rate hike, Nguyen Duc Hai, Senior Investment Director, Fixed Income Securities from Manulife Investment Vietnam Fund Management Co., Ltd, said that when interest rates rise, the opportunity cost of the investment will also increase. At that time, investors will have to consider a lot when investing in risky channels, which reduces investment cash flow.

On the business side, rising interest rates will increase enterprises’ cap costs and reduce corporate profits, making businesses have to consider more when they want to expand production and trades.

"In general, the high-interest-rate environment will purge the market, and only high-performing businesses will survive and develop," - Mr. Hai emphasized.

According to economists, the stock market has seen many fluctuations recently. However, according to Bloomberg, Vietnamese businesses still have a lot of good growth potential this year, with the market's forecasted earnings per share growth of 19.89% in 2022.

In particular, Vietnam's stock market valuation (P/E) has been at the lowest level in the past five years. This is an opportunity to invest in the market to benefit in the context that Vietnam's economy has many bright spots and growth potential in the future.

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